10.18.2022 – A 4 year old could

A 4 year old could
understand wonkiness go
find a 4 year old

Adapted from the Marx Brother’s Movie Duck Soup.

In the movie, the Treasury Secretary presents his departmental report saying, “I hope you’ll find it clear.

Grouch, in the role of President of Freedonia, Rufus T. Firefly, accepts the report and responds, “Clear? Why a four year old child could understand this report.”

Groucho hands the report to Zeppo playing the usual role of secretary to Groucho and in a lower voice says, “Find me a four year child. I can’t make head or tail of it.”

I just finished reading the article, NYT/Siena Poll Is Latest to Show Republican Gains.

The article asks, “Is four points the real margin nationally? That’s a good question.”

The writer of the article, Mr. Nate Cohen, then tries to answer the question.

His response seems to focus on the wonderful polling/statistical concept known as WONKINESS.

(I present a representative section of the article with buzzwords in bold for artistic license.)

Mr. Cohen writes:

Is four points the real margin? (Wonkiness 4/10)

Our poll may show Republicans ahead, 49-45, and yet it may not be accurate to say they lead by four points. In fact, they actually lead by three points.

This is a polling custom that has always left me a little cold. The case for rounding is straightforward: Reporting results to the decimal point conveys a false sense of precision. After a decade of high-profile polling misfires, “precision” is most certainly not the sense pollsters want to try to convey right now. And in this case, reporting to the one-thousandth of a point would obviously be ridiculous. We didn’t even contact a thousand people; how could we offer a result to the one-thousandth?

But there’s a trade-off. Characterizing this poll as a four-point Republican lead doesn’t merely offer a false sense of precision — it’s just false. That’s not something I can gloss over.

Sometimes, the difference is enough to affect the way people interpret the poll. We’ve reported one party in the “lead” by one percentage point when, in fact, the figures are essentially even. These differences don’t actually mean much, of course, but no one — not even those of us well versed in statistics and survey methodology — can escape perceiving a difference between R+1 and Even.

I am reminded of the old Saturday Night Live sketch of Chevy Chase playing Gerald R. Ford.

When he gets an question about economic numbers, Chase (as Ford) looks at the screen and says quietly, “I was told there would be no math.”

10.17.2022 – supply bottlenecks

supply bottlenecks
volatile market rampant
corporate profits

Adapted from these paragraphs in the article, Latest US inflation data raises questions about Fed’s interest rate hikes.

The news is further stirring fears of unnecessary economic pain should the Fed push America into recession.

“Raising interest rates isn’t working, and the Fed’s overly aggressive actions are shoving our economy to the brink of a devastating recession,” said Rakeen Mabud, chief economist at the progressive Groundwork Collaborative think tank. “Supply chain bottlenecks, a volatile global energy market and rampant corporate profiteering can’t be solved by additional rate hikes.”

The Fed and some economists maintain that demand generated by a hot labor market and higher wages are driving inflation, and higher unemployment and interest rates are panaceas.

To that end, the Fed has hiked rates five times in 2022 and indicated more increases are to come, moves the Federal Reserve board chair, Jerome Powell, has acknowledged will “bring some pain” to households and businesses.

More increases are to come.

Moves the Federal Reserve board chair, Jerome Powell, has acknowledged will “bring some pain.”

Back in the day when I went to college and actually attended classes in person with a real person delivering a lecture on the History of the United States, a question was presented that stated, “With the economic distress caused by the depression, why did the Communist Party NOT make any real gains in America as a political power?

The answer, I was taught, was in the depression era, American’s held themselves responsible for there plight.

And as they were responsible, they looked to themselves to find a way out.

Today, I feel I AM looking to the Government to find a way out.

Why?

Because, today, I feel the Government IS responsible.

Boy Howdy but do I wish there a way to bring some pain to those folks.

10.16.2022 – not going to say

not going to say
I will reduce my income
to achieve this goal

Sorry to say it but after 20 some years in the news business I am not used to seeing someone, anyone, be honest in print.

Brutally honest.

In an article that everyone should read but too few people will, the New York Times quotes Eli Ungar, the founder of Mac Properties, which is based in Englewood, N.J., and owns about 9,000 apartments, including 2,000 in Kansas City, who bluntly laid out the economics of rental development.

“The folks who think of themselves as middle class and are feeling increased worry and pressure as rents go up faster than incomes, and the people who are most vulnerable in our society and desperately need housing that no developer can provide without a massive subsidy,” Mr. Ungar said. “As a citizen, I would be entirely comfortable with my taxes being higher to provide well-maintained housing for those who can’t afford it.

The question is how that is achieved, and market-rate developers are not unilaterally going to say, ‘I will reduce my income to achieve this goal.’”

As I do think this article is worth reading and I acknowledge that most folks haven’t figured out the never expiring free three day NYT accounts available at many public libraries, I have created a download version of the article you can access here.

10.15.2022 – can wipe up the sick

can wipe up the sick
scrub it with vanish but the
odour still lingers

Oh those Brits.

Describing the current UK Government moves in response to the response over the current UK moves over the economy, The Guardian had this line.

“It’s like somebody has vomited all over an expensive rug,” reflected one former minister. “You can wipe up the sick, scrub it with Vanish, but the odour still lingers.”

In the Political world were so much depends on the sort memory of the voter, thank heaven that the odour still lingers.

BTW, I debated with myself to change the spelling of Odour to the American version of Oder, but Odour has so much more, that certain yet un-certain  je ne sais quoi when talking about politics and vomit.

I am becoming aware that politics, all through history, has been this way.

In the way of political action, there is nothing new under the sun.

What is new is the urgency of World Wide Web and social Media that allows to be there on the scene to see the vomit before it is cleaned up.

In the past, all we had was the odour and the speculation as to what caused it.

Today, the minute someone barfs, we are all over it.

Both to decry the barfing or to deny it depending on one’s point of view.

It isn’t that politics is a mess.

It is just that we are much more aware of it.

Not sure this is progress.

Being all over vomit is not a place I ever wanted to be.

But BOY HOWDY!, that is where we are.

From the article, How ‘knives of the long night’ led to brutally swift Kwarteng sacking,

10.14.2022 – always expected

always expected
the worst, and it’s always worse
than I expected

“I’ve always expected the worst, and it’s always worse than I expected.”, is attributed, by sources on the information highway, to the novelist Henry James.

While a great quote, I do like to find it’s context.

Stephen Fry talks about this need for attribution of quotes in his podcast, Fry’s English Delight, where Mr. Fry goes into the differing opinions on quotes.

Some think you should quote very little and always reference the original author.

Others felt the dubious practice of quoting however much you wanted, with no reference and even changing bits was okay.

It does bother me when I cannot find where a quote that the online world attributes to someone but cannot go any further than the quote itself.

So goes the thoughts on I’ve always expected the worst, and it’s always worse than I expected.

I ran across it yesterday in the New York Time.

Sadly, the writer attributed to Henry Adams.

Henry Adams.

Henry James.

Does it matter when no one reads either one anymore and all the name does is reawaken a slight echo that they might have been someone that at sometime was worth knowing something more about?

For Mr. James, I cannot say I know much about.

Wikipedia says that Henry James (15 April 1843 – 28 February 1916) was an American-born British author. He is regarded as a key transitional figure between literary realism and literary modernism, and is considered by many to be among the greatest novelists in the English language. He was the son of Henry James Sr. and the brother of philosopher and psychologist William James and diarist Alice James.

The highest thing I can say about Mr. James, with my limited knowledge, is that James Thurber once wrote how he gathered up his courage and wherewithall and called on an ex-wife so that he could re-claim his copies of the collected works of Henry James.

The worst thing I can say is to quote Mark Twain on Henry James and say, “Once you’ve put one of his books down … you simply can’t pick it up again.

I have to admit that quote has kept me, despite my respect for Thurber, from ever picking up The Bostonians and taking a mental whack at it.

Legend has it that Beethoven once said something along the line of, “I like Wagner. I do! I think someday I will set it to music.”

The importance of getting it right verus Vass you dere, Sharlie?

Regardless.

Regardless of who said it first.

I’ve always expected the worst, and it’s always worse than I expected.

And don’t forget.

Blessed are those who expect nothing.

They will never be disappointed.

To quote Ms. Parker, “What fresh hell IS this!”