cynicism risk
can’t believe numbers, do we
believe anything?
Adapted from the New York Times Opinion piece, What to Do When the President Acts Like a Five-Year-Old?, by By George A. Akerlof, a Nobel-winning economist where Mr. Akerlof writes:
When a government fires the umpire, we all have reason to wonder: What game are we playing? One danger certainly is that a future Bureau of Labor Statistics head might feel political pressure to fudge a jobs report. The deeper risk is cynicism, the quiet corrosion of faith in institutions. If we can’t believe the numbers, how do we believe anything?
Sadly, Mr. Akerlof doesn’t follow through and answer the question, What to Do When the President Acts Like a Five-Year-Old?
He does point out the that President should follow the rules.
He writes: Past presidents respected this boundary. Ronald Reagan didn’t fire the head of the agency when it reported double-digit unemployment during his first term.
But what should we do?
As already quoted, Mr. Akerlof says If we can’t believe the numbers, how do we believe anything?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
All the the deeper risk is cynicism?
Deeper risk?
I was schooled in the school there are lies, damn lies … and Government Statistics.
I was schooled that during World War 2, unemployment figures were at their lowest levels ever. That they country couldn’t show Full Employment however, was due to way the figures were added up.
I always thought that I could get rid of the US Debt by telling the Government to use the long scale Billion where a billion is a million million, not a 1000 million as the US debt is now counted.
Over night, the debt would fall from $36.7 Trillion dollars to a much more realizable $37.6 Billion.
And you could believe the numbers!
Here’s how that conversion works:
Standard U.S. system (short scale):
- 1 trillion = 1,000 billion
- 1 billion = 1,000 million
So, 1 trillion = 1,000,000 million (one million million).
Therefore:
- $36.7 trillion = 36.7 million million dollars
(in other words, $36,700,000,000,000).
So if you’re counting a billion as a million million (which is the long scale used historically in some parts of Europe), then:
Long scale conversion:
- 1 billion (long scale) = 1 million million (i.e., 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 trillion short scale).
So in long scale, $36.7 trillion (short scale) = 36.7 billion (long scale).
Summary:
- Short scale (used in the U.S.): $36.7 trillion = 36.7 million million.
- Long scale: $36.7 trillion = 36.7 billion (long scale definition of billion).
I am reminded of the old TV Show, Yes, Minister, where the local authorities are not sending in their reports on time.
The exchange between Sir Humphrey, Hacker and Bernard goes:
Sir Humphrey: If local authorities don’t send us statistics, Government figures will be a nonsense.
Hacker: Why?
Sir Humphrey: They’ll be incomplete.
Hacker: Government figures are a nonsense, anyway.
Bernard: I think Sir Humphrey wants to ensure they’re a complete nonsense.
To repeat again, If we can’t believe the numbers, how do we believe anything?
Folks, if we have to believe the numbers … well …
As Sonny Corleone said about Luca, [ If Luca sold out,] … we’re in a lot of trouble, believe me. A lot of trouble.
But I don’t want to sound cynical.
No Haiku For You 