3.6.2024 – am confused distraught

confused and distraught
this will have to serve – face it
these loom large these days

Driving to work this morning, I was listening to a collection of articles by Jim Harrison in a book posthumously published titled, A really big lunch (New York : Grove Press 2017).

It is a collection of Mr. Harrison’s articles about food, cooking and eating,

In the introduction by Mario Batali, Mr. Batali wrote of Jim Harrison, “…and nothing makes a cook quite so happy as someone who exists entirely to eat — and when not eating, to talk about eating, to hunt and fish for things to eat, or to spend time after eating talking about what we just ate.”

Mr. Batali also wrote that Mr. Harrison was someone … “who wrote sentences that stretched beyond the wildest poetry of my imagination” and I could appreciate that.

Still these are essays about eating, hunting and fishing for things to eat, and talking about what Mr. Harrison just ate.

Maybe not the best thing to listen to first thing in the morning especially for someone who still gets by on just coffee please until I wake up enough around lunch time to think about putting food in my system.

I made it through Mr. Batali and then through the first essay titled, Eat Your Heart Out, a discussion of commercially available hot sauces (in 1981), the rain was pouring down, I couldn’t see and much as I enjoy Mr. Harrison’s prose, I said to myself, “… time for some music” and as the car eased off the bridge onto the island where I work, I reached over to switch from audio books to music.

In that second before the click registered on my handheld, the next essay (Food for Thought as published in Smoke Signals 1982) in the queue stated to play.

I heard the first two words of that essay before it stopped.

I heard, “Dear Mike ...”

And it went off.

Well, boy howdy but that kind of freaked me out.

I had to hear what Mr. Harrison was writing to me.

I switched my device back to audio books and hit play.

I heard the last bit the previous article that I had just heard and then once more I heard, “Dear Mike …”

“I am so confused and distraught …”

And I hit stop.

That’s all I needed to hear.

Confused and distraught.

Like Castor and Pollux, the twins of the Gemini, confused and distraught.

The full sentence, I later looked up is, I am so confused and distraught that this will have to serve as my food letter for the upcoming issue. Let’s face it, the twin specters of food and politics loom large these days.

Food I am not so much worried with.

But politics?

And of much else in life?

Confused and distraught.

Remember Potiphar in the Bible?

According to the Genesis 39:6. Potiphar … “did not concern himself with anything except the food he ate.“

Did not concern himself with anything … ANYTHING, except the food he ate.

Lucky guy!

3.5.2024 – a people’s contest

a people’s contest
unfettered start, a fair chance
in the race of life

This is essentially a people’s contest.

On the side of the Union it is a struggle for maintaining in the world that form and substance of government whose leading object is to elevate the condition of men;

to lift artificial weights from all shoulders;

to clear the paths of laudable pursuit for all;

to afford all an unfettered start and a fair chance in the race of life.

President Abraham Lincoln’s special message to Congress, July 4, 1861.

Known as the The Fourth of July that Could Have Wrecked the Country, Mr. Lincoln explained his views and plans to keep the United States with Liberty and Union, now and forever, one and inseparable.

Oddly prescient, Mr. Lincoln said:

It is now for them to demonstrate to the world that those who can fairly carry an election can also suppress a rebellion;

that ballots are the rightful and peaceful successors of bullets,

and that when ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided there can be no successful appeal back to bullets;

that there can be no successful appeal except to ballots themselves at succeeding elections.

Such will be a great lesson of peace,

teaching men that what they can not take by an election neither can they take it by a war;

teaching all the folly of being the beginners of a war.

3.4.2024 – hopefully readers

hopefully readers
find this tolerable trying
better figuring

It was after the election in 2000 that then President, Bill Clinton said something along the lines of “America has spoken. Now we have to figure out what America said.”

I found it hard to read the New York Times article, A Change in Our Poll: We’re Keeping Respondents Who Drop Off the Call by Nat Cohn (March 1, 2024)

The article was slugged. “Why the latest NYT/Siena College survey on Saturday will include those who started the survey but didn’t finish it.” and Mr. Cohn tried herd to explain how the New York Times was working to present the best polling information possible.

What he meant was he was trying to explain how asking 1,000 different people to take 15 minute telephone quiz could be expanded in a definitive way that explained how 300+ Million Americans were thinking.

I have professionally designing websites since 1995.

I am often asked for a statistical analysis of web traffic.

Folks want to know “What the number show.”

It did not take me long to learn to immediately ask, “What do you want the numbers to show?”

Because of the way web analytics are created I can prove almost any point you want to make, pro or con, about any website all using the same data.

When I read Mr. Cohn’s paragraph:

You may notice the most obvious change:

There are 157 fewer respondents to the second half of the survey than the first half. But there’s more to it:

The demographic makeup of the 823 respondents will be ever so slightly different from the full sample, since even weighting doesn’t force a perfect alignment between the characteristics of a poll and the intended population.

Hopefully readers find this tolerable; if not, there may be other options we can adopt in the future.

This is, after all, the first time we’re trying this.

I expect we’ll gradually get better at figuring out how to present these results, especially once we see what other people notice.

I had to take my hat off again to these folks.

Noting adds authority more to explanatory statements better than colons and semicolons except maybe a split infintiive.

As I read this Mr. Cohn has admitted that “weighting doesn’t force a perfect alignment between the characteristics of a poll and the intended population.”

And, Hopefully readers find this tolerable …

if not, there may be other options we can adopt in the future.

Mr. Cohn expects they will get better at figuring how to present these results.

Especially once they see what other people notice!!!!

Now was any of this even of this mentioned when other news Media around the world presented the information in the latest NTY Sienna College polls?

Nope not that I heard.

But that is the trick isn’t.

It isn’t what the poll said, but what you heard it say isn’t it??

Polling, oh well.

The only thing Mr. Cohn didn’t say is that in the future they will ask folks what they want the polls to say.

I could use that old Abraham Lincoln never conducted a poll to find out what he should do, he just did the right thing as he saw it.

On the other hand, maybe Mr. Lincoln was wrong.

Maybe you CAN fool all of the people all of the time.

3.3.2024 – appreciate both

appreciate both
there’re flowers to go around
just leave it at that

In an article about LeBron James, As LeBron James hits 40,000-point threshold, the age-old GOAT debate has shifted by Sam Amick (The Athletic, Mar 2, 2024), Mr. Amick writes:

What’s more, the GOAT construct is tired and flawed in ways that do a disservice to them both. Contrary to popular belief, it’s OK to appreciate Picasso and Da Vinci at the same time and just leave it at that. There are enough flowers to go around.

GOAT meaning Greatest of All Time.

Which I usually translate to “The Greatest of All Time … This Week.”

It is Joe DiMaggio who is credited with saying he played hard … “Because there’s always some fan who may be seeing me for the first time. I owe him my best.”

That too me sums up the outlook of a GOAT.

I will pass over that Marylin Monroe left Mr. Dimaggio for University of Michigan Alum, Arthur Miller.

What do I think?

I think a lot of things, especially when talking about the greatest of all time.

But off all the things you could ask, think, require or want, I think Mr. Amick sums it up pretty good when he wrote, “… it’s OK to appreciate Picasso and Da Vinci at the same time and just leave it at that.

There are enough flowers to go around.

Just leave it at that.“

And I will say this.

Think of all the discussions of this topic in any given field and the discussions go on to the end of time because you know why?

I’ll tell you why.

Because there is NO SPONSOR or COMPETITION that is recognized as the accepted last word on the subject.

With no one to say this is that and that is so, the discussions can be endless.

And rightfully so.

There was time in College Football were there was no ‘truly’ recognized body to say which team and which team was not the best in any given season.

The result?

The real result?

The discussions were endless.

This past year, Michigan won, end of story, end of discussion, on to next year.

For me, the National Champion construct is tired and flawed in ways that do a disservice to them both.

There were a lot of good teams last.

There were enough flowers to around.

And the story, the discussions, would have gone on forever.

Just leave it at that.

Would this have been a bad thing?

The paths of glory lead but to the grave anyway.

3.2.2024 – further furthermore

further furthermore
moreover meanwhile and
additionally

This morning I read the article, ‘We knew this was coming’: western US hunkers down amid avalanche warnings and gale-force winds” by Nina Lakhani and Dani Anguiano in the Guardian (March 1, 2024) and I got hung up by the quote from the National Weather Warning that stated:

There is a high chance (over 70%) of substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains Friday-Saturday, where blizzard conditions and 5+ feet of snow are expected.

I liked the idea of … a high chance of substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life … through Saturday.

And I wrote this haiku:

high chance substantial,
long-lasting disruptions to
daily life expected

I guess that it means that the substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life could HAPPEN through Saturday but the substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life could LAST much longer than just through the weekend.

On the other hand, my wife pointed out that 24 to 48 hour power/cellphone/internet/TV outage WAS a substantial, long-lasting disruption to daily life for a lot of people today.

I went and read the complete Short Range Public Discussion Weather Statement from the NWS.

As this blog and these haiku are meant to be about words, I have to take my hat off and applaud those folks at the National Weather service for the all inclusive text in their Short Range Public Discussion.

The Short Range Public Discussion consists of 4 bullet points and seven paragraphs.

The first paragraph starts out with, “A second winter storm will impact the West Coast …”

The following six paragraphs start as follows:

Furthermore, the storm will …

Moreover, in addition to …

In addition, the …

Further, cold air will …

Meanwhile, upper-level energy …

And finally, Additionally, upper-level energy moving …

With a “Also, on Friday …” tucked into the last paragraph.

I don’t know but there something hypnotic, something Shakespearian, like a bass note in a Bach fugue as each new aspect of this storm is introduced into the Short Range Public Discussion of the weather.

I can easily imagine it as a rant of someone in a movie or tv show spouting off on all the things that went wrong on their weekend off.

It was Oscar Wilde who said, “Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative.”

Well!

Mr. Wilde never met the United States National Weather Service.

PS – OH AND, here is the complete Short Range Public Discussion as it appeared on Thursday, February 29, 2024 at 2:58AM (EST).

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 29 2024 – 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain

Region, Northern Rockies, Northern California, and Sierra Nevada
Mountains…

…Heavy lake-effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario and over the Upper
Great Lakes…

…Rain from the Gulf Coast to parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and shower
and thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast and Southeast…

A second winter storm will impact the West Coast on Thursday and Friday. The storm will create heavy mountain snow that will affect many passes. Multiple feet of snow are likely (over 80% chance) for higher elevations, especially above 5000 feet, including many Cascade and Sierra Nevada Mountain passes. Extremely heavy snow rates surpassing 3 inches per hour are likely.

Furthermore, the storm will produce blizzard conditions in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. In detail, strong winds will cause significant blowing/drifting snow and whiteout conditions, making travel impossible in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. There is a high chance (over 70%) of substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains Friday-Saturday, where blizzard conditions and 5+ feet of snow are expected.

Moreover, in addition to the snow, coastal rain will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Saturday. Coastal rain will develop over parts of California Thursday morning, continuing into Saturday.

In addition, the widespread damaging wind will develop over the Western U.S. Wind gusts of 55+ mph are forecasted across much of the West, particularly across higher elevations and the Intermountain West, where 75+ mph gusts are possible. These winds would likely down trees and power lines, resulting in power outages across affected areas.

Further, cold air will lower snow levels Friday into Saturday. As the storm moves south, snow levels will lower into some Northern California and Sierra Nevada Mountain foothill communities. Much colder air is forecast for Saturday, with temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy moving across the Great Lakes into the Northeast will create lake-effect snow over the northeast portion of the U.P. of Michigan, with the heaviest lake-effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario on Thursday.

Additionally, upper-level energy moving over the Southern Rockies will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday, producing rain and higher-elevation snow over the Southern Rockies Thursday. Overnight Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains, moving into the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Southern Ohio Valleys and parts of the Southeast by Friday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast through Saturday. On Friday, rain will move into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley, moving into parts of the Northeast by Saturday. Also, on Friday, scattered pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over the highest elevations of parts of the Central/Southern Appalachians.