10.21.2022 – standing here tonight

standing here tonight
I’m afraid that I don’t hear
a thing just silence

Readers of this blog, bless their hearts, will be familiar with the fact that throughout my day I listen to an online radio station from London, ClassicFM.

There was a time when American college radio stations fulfilled the role of sources of classical music on American airwaves but then somewhere in the 1990’s (why does that seem so long ago) someone made the decision that college radio stations should move in the direction of AM talk radio.

So I discovered ClassicFM.

There are many things on the plus side to listening to a radio station for London, not the least of which is that those folks are 5 hours ahead of us (or 4 depending on whether or not we are saving daylight).

I like to say that this 5 hours difference gives me confidence to go on, as somewhere in this world someone has already made it through the next 5 hours.

Of late I keep thinking about how they, the Brits, are ahead of us.

Are just 5 hours ahead of us.

The point being, what happens there, is on its way here.

For me, I have to say, that the Brits Prime Minister lasted but 45 days on the job, is a bit chilling.

The Brit Conservative Party was started in 1834 and their latest leader lasted less than 2 months.

Avoiding comment on the reasons and everything but the fact that the leader lasted less than 2 months, it got me to thinking.

It got me to thinking dark thoughts.

Understand this moment by itself would have been grim but lets just look at the headlines.

This country is facing one of its most divisive elections since the Civil War when half the then country said SEE YOU LATER. (Then Abraham Lincoln said, NO SO FAST)

What might have been a border war in the long history of this sad world is threatening to expand its borders in ways too unimaginable to not be imagined.

The ability to house the citizens of this country is disappearing in the rush to build vacation homes for some of the citizens.

The ability to feed, clothe, employ and educate the citizens of this country is drying up as the Government of this country shows, less and less, the desire to feed, clothe, employ and educate the citizens of this country.

Mother Nature, after centuries of neglect, looks to be warming up to show everyone that, boy howdy, payback’s a bitch.

It all got me to thinking of a movie.

A movie called Margin Call.

A movie about how in 2009, the bill came due.

Almost by accident, one of the minor characters in the movie runs some simulations and learns, to his dismay, that if current trends continue to decline, the company he works for will be worthless in about 2 months.

This feller alerts his boss, who tell his boss, who tells his boss, who calls the big guy at the top.

The big guy shows up and the feller who discovered it all explains his fears of continued decline in the market, that the music of making money is slowing.

The big guy looks at the assembly of bosses and under bosses and looks out the window and delivers this short hamletonian soliloquy.

Do you care to know why I’m in this chair with you all?
I mean, why I earn the big bucks?
I’m here for one reason and one reason alone.
I’m here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now.
That’s it.
Nothing more.
And standing here tonight,
I’m afraid that I don’t hear a thing.
Just silence.

I feel like I am looking at the top of a snow mountain peak and I can see that an avalanche of snow and ice and rocks has started away up at the top and it is only a matter of time before it all comes down on me here in the valley.

The thing about avalanches, once they start …

I think of this movie.

I think of this country.

And I think of Verses in the Bible.

I think of Psalm 137 verse 1.

I think that By the rivers of Babylon we sat and wept when we remembered Zion.

And standing here tonight, I’m afraid that I don’t hear a thing.

Just silence.

10.20.2022 – refused to believe

refused to believe
prejudice trample knowledge
and benevolence

Adapted from the recent article, Samuel Adams in Smithsonian, Oct 1, 2023.

The article states: Adams banked on the sage deliberations of a band of ambitious farmers reasoning their way toward rebellion.

That was how democracy worked.

He dreaded disunity.

“Neither religion nor liberty can long subsist in the tumult of altercation, and amidst the noise and violence of faction,” he warned.

He refused to believe that prejudice and private interest would ultimately trample knowledge and benevolence.

Self-government was in his view inseparable from governing the self; it demanded a certain asceticism.

He wrote anthem after anthem to the qualities he believed essential to a republic — austerity, integrity, selfless public service — qualities that would become more military than civilian.

The contest was never for Adams less than a spiritual struggle.

It is impossible with him to determine where piety ended and politics began; the watermark of Puritanism shines through everything he wrote.

Faith was there from the start, as was the scrappy, iconoclastic spirit, as were the daring, disruptive excursions beyond the law.

10.19.2022 – change minds – delicate

change minds – delicate
work- dutch people don’t like to
be told what to do

Fascinating read in the article by Raymond Zhong in the New York Times (10 10 2022), They’re ‘World Champions’ of Banishing Water. Now, the Dutch Need to Keep It.

The sub heading is ‘As climate change dries out Europe, the Netherlands, a country long shaped by its overabundance of water, is suddenly confronting drought.’

According the article, and who am I to question the NYTs, “The Netherlands’ success at getting rid of excess water helped it become an agricultural powerhouse — the world’s No. 2 exporter of farm products after the United States. This year, though, drought and energy concerns caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine have prompted anguished debate about whether it is sustainable for the Netherlands to produce so many of its famous tulips, plus so much cheese, meat, fruits and vegetables.”

Growing up with a Dutch Heritage in West Michigan, I could verify several things in the article.

The story of the Netherlands’ centuries of struggle against water is written all over its boggy, low-lying landscape. Windmills pumped water out of sodden farmland and canals whisked it away. Dikes stopped more from flooding in.

Boy Howdy!

Working in all that boggy land, why do think we wore those wooden shoes!

Mr. Zhong interviewed a Dutch Farmer names Peter van Dijk, who grew, what else. blueberries!

Mr. Zhong also interviewed Gertjan Zwolsman, a policy adviser and researcher at Dunea, a drinking-water company who, in a comment about the bog land now garden spot of Europe as saying, “There is nothing natural about the Netherlands.”

Lastly, Mr. Zhong quotes Mr. van Dijk again, saying “Changing farmers’ minds can be delicate work, “Dutch people don’t like to be told what to do.”

NO KDDING!

10.18.2022 – A 4 year old could

A 4 year old could
understand wonkiness go
find a 4 year old

Adapted from the Marx Brother’s Movie Duck Soup.

In the movie, the Treasury Secretary presents his departmental report saying, “I hope you’ll find it clear.

Grouch, in the role of President of Freedonia, Rufus T. Firefly, accepts the report and responds, “Clear? Why a four year old child could understand this report.”

Groucho hands the report to Zeppo playing the usual role of secretary to Groucho and in a lower voice says, “Find me a four year child. I can’t make head or tail of it.”

I just finished reading the article, NYT/Siena Poll Is Latest to Show Republican Gains.

The article asks, “Is four points the real margin nationally? That’s a good question.”

The writer of the article, Mr. Nate Cohen, then tries to answer the question.

His response seems to focus on the wonderful polling/statistical concept known as WONKINESS.

(I present a representative section of the article with buzzwords in bold for artistic license.)

Mr. Cohen writes:

Is four points the real margin? (Wonkiness 4/10)

Our poll may show Republicans ahead, 49-45, and yet it may not be accurate to say they lead by four points. In fact, they actually lead by three points.

This is a polling custom that has always left me a little cold. The case for rounding is straightforward: Reporting results to the decimal point conveys a false sense of precision. After a decade of high-profile polling misfires, “precision” is most certainly not the sense pollsters want to try to convey right now. And in this case, reporting to the one-thousandth of a point would obviously be ridiculous. We didn’t even contact a thousand people; how could we offer a result to the one-thousandth?

But there’s a trade-off. Characterizing this poll as a four-point Republican lead doesn’t merely offer a false sense of precision — it’s just false. That’s not something I can gloss over.

Sometimes, the difference is enough to affect the way people interpret the poll. We’ve reported one party in the “lead” by one percentage point when, in fact, the figures are essentially even. These differences don’t actually mean much, of course, but no one — not even those of us well versed in statistics and survey methodology — can escape perceiving a difference between R+1 and Even.

I am reminded of the old Saturday Night Live sketch of Chevy Chase playing Gerald R. Ford.

When he gets an question about economic numbers, Chase (as Ford) looks at the screen and says quietly, “I was told there would be no math.”

10.17.2022 – supply bottlenecks

supply bottlenecks
volatile market rampant
corporate profits

Adapted from these paragraphs in the article, Latest US inflation data raises questions about Fed’s interest rate hikes.

The news is further stirring fears of unnecessary economic pain should the Fed push America into recession.

“Raising interest rates isn’t working, and the Fed’s overly aggressive actions are shoving our economy to the brink of a devastating recession,” said Rakeen Mabud, chief economist at the progressive Groundwork Collaborative think tank. “Supply chain bottlenecks, a volatile global energy market and rampant corporate profiteering can’t be solved by additional rate hikes.”

The Fed and some economists maintain that demand generated by a hot labor market and higher wages are driving inflation, and higher unemployment and interest rates are panaceas.

To that end, the Fed has hiked rates five times in 2022 and indicated more increases are to come, moves the Federal Reserve board chair, Jerome Powell, has acknowledged will “bring some pain” to households and businesses.

More increases are to come.

Moves the Federal Reserve board chair, Jerome Powell, has acknowledged will “bring some pain.”

Back in the day when I went to college and actually attended classes in person with a real person delivering a lecture on the History of the United States, a question was presented that stated, “With the economic distress caused by the depression, why did the Communist Party NOT make any real gains in America as a political power?

The answer, I was taught, was in the depression era, American’s held themselves responsible for there plight.

And as they were responsible, they looked to themselves to find a way out.

Today, I feel I AM looking to the Government to find a way out.

Why?

Because, today, I feel the Government IS responsible.

Boy Howdy but do I wish there a way to bring some pain to those folks.